REPUBLICAN Party candidate in the November 2024 United States of America election, Donald Trump’s margins have narrowed in his home state of Florida, according to a new poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph.
The Presidential Voting Intention poll of 3,601 swing state voters found that Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden, his main rival in the scheduled election, has decreased since June in two key swing states: Florida and North Carolina. The poll shows that 45% of participants plan to vote for Trump, compared to Biden’s 41%.
Trump previously defeated Biden in both states in 2020, while he held a six-point lead over Biden in Florida in a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll from that June. However, he now only leads the current president by four points in Florida. A June Fox News survey gave Trump 50% of the vote, compared to 46% for Biden. However, poll aggregator Race to the White House has Trump on average eight points ahead of Biden in the state, with Biden at 41% and Trump at 49%.
Florida has traditionally been a key swing state, voting for Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, but more recently, it has become a Republican stronghold. In November 2022, GOP Governor Ron DeSantis secured reelection over his Democratic challenger by 59.4% of the vote against 40%.
In the 2020 presidential election, Trump won 51.2% of the vote, compared to 47.9% for Biden. Trump’s margin is also narrowing in North Carolina, where he had a three-point lead over Biden in June. According to Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ poll, his lead was slashed to only two points, with 44% of those polled saying they would vote for Trump, compared to Biden’s 42%.
The poll also included independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who polls between 4 and 7% in the swing states, performing best in Arizona and worst in North Carolina. While he generally takes more votes from Biden than Trump, the poll shows a slightly higher percentage of 2020 Trump voters than Biden voters in North Carolina and Georgia plan to vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Overall, the poll found that if Trump and Biden were the candidates of the two major parties in 2024, a plurality of voters in all six states believe Trump would be more likely to win the election. Biden’s fitness for office has been called into question since his shaky debate performance against Trump in June in which he muddled his words and appeared to lose his train of thought.
Among swing state voters who watched, heard, or read about the June CNN debate, between 51% and 55% in all six states believe that Trump won the debate, against only 15% to 22% who think Biden won the debate. November’s election is likely to be a close race between Trump and Biden. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average shows the former president with a narrow 1.7-point lead over Biden.
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