DONALD Trump has pulled ahead of Kamala Harris in four major national polls as the competition tightens in the final stretch before the election.
After trailing Harris in several surveys just weeks ago, multiple polls show Trump now has a slight lead over his opponent for the first time since early August.
The latest Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll, conducted on 21 October, put Trump 2 points ahead among 1,273 likely voters, on 47 per cent to Harris’ 45 per cent, in a 4-point swing from its previous national poll, conducted on 6 October, which showed Harris with a 2 point lead. However, although the latest poll showed Trump ahead, his lead was still within the survey’s margin of error. Harris’ lead in the 6 October poll was also within the margin of error.
A Fox News poll, conducted between 11 and 14 October among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, also showed that Trump had overtaken Harris with a 2-point lead, 50 per cent to her 48 per cent, which falls within the poll’s margin of error. That is a 4-point swing from when Harris was leading Trump by 2 points a month ago, also within the margin of error.
Additionally, the latest ActiVote poll, conducted from 3-8 October showed Donald Trump holding a 2.2-point lead nationwide with a 3 percent margin of error. That came after a previous poll from ActiVote conducted between 25 September and 2 October, had Kamala Harris ahead by 1.4 points.
Meanwhile, in the latest national NBC News poll, conducted between 4 and 8 October among 1,000 registered voters, Trump and Harris were tied in a head-to-head matchup, but Trump led Harris by 1 point when third-party candidates were included with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
That’s a change from September’s NBC News poll, which found Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 49 percent-44 per cent in a head-to-head matchup, though that result was within the margin of error. When third-party candidates were included, Harris led by 6 points.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment.
“As summer has turned to fall, any signs of momentum for Kamala Harris have stopped,” Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt told NBC News. “The race is a dead heat.”
But despite Trump’s lead, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker still shows that Harris is ahead nationally by 1.7 points, while pollster Nate Silver’s tracker has her up by 1.6 points, and other recent polls, including polls by YouGov and Morning Consult, have given Harris a lead of up to 4 points.
Nonetheless, polling aggregators have shifted in favour of Trump in recent days, showing that he now has a greater chance than Harris of winning the election. For example, Silver’s current forecast gives Trump a 52.7 per cent chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 47 per cent.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ forecast currently shows that with no toss-up states, Trump is predicted to win in every battleground state, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 227.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast has also shifted in favour of Trump showing that he has a 52 per cent chance of winning the election compared to Harris’ 48 per cent chance. The forecast also shows that Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, is now set for a Trump victory after Harris has led in the state since August.
Meanwhile, Harris and Trump have equal chances of winning in Nevada—another swing state that Harris had been leading. Harris is currently projected to win in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump is forecast to take Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.
Harris needs 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to secure victory, while Trump requires 51. If Trump won Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, he would win the election.
Credit: Newsweek
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